A report issued by the United States Government Accountability Office has revealed worldwide GPS accuracy could decrease drastically as early as next year if the US Air Force can’t keep up with interim maintenance.
Cost issues, commercial mergers and acquisitions, contractor issues and scheduling problems have resulted in doubt that a 24-satellite constellation can be maintained. Although a GPSIII satellite is expected to launch in November 2009, it’s already 3 years late, and if another delay happens the GAO believes the probability of keeping 24 healthy satellites in the sky drops to 95 percent in 2010 and as low as 80 percent in 2011 to 2012. If the Air Force doesn’t maintain proper scheduling for further GPSIII satellites, the probability drops to 10 percent to 2017. Ouch.
Keep in mind that these figures relate to worst-case scenarios which I think are pretty unlikely to happen. Furthermore, 24 satellites aren’t required for a GPS fix, especially not with consumer devices like PNDs and mobile phone GPS. The effects would likely really be felt in commercial and military uses where accuracy often means lives lost and lives saved.
The conspiracy theorists and glass-half-empty types will have kinds of fun with this, but check out the numbers closely and you’ll realize it’s probably nothing to worry about.
